· Statistical models are used to forecast probability of volcanic activity both in the short term and the long term. They have been tested in locating sites for nuclear waste repositories as well as on currently active volcanoes. However, these models are based on data which, despite our best efforts, is imperfect. Also, although these models are able to incorporate all types of data, we can only measure so many things about volcanoes. The great advantage of these models is that they can account for time gaps in data and they will continue to improve as monitoring becomes more accurate and more techniques for monitoring volcanoes are introduced.
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| Example event tree used by the statistical model BET incorporating all available information to output a value for either eruption forecasting (light blue box) or volcanic hazard (dark blue box). Source:http://bet.bo.ingv.it/ |
