Big Idea #10: Time Series Patterns


Although it often appears as if volcanoes are spontaneous geologic features, there may actually exhibit recurring eruptive patterns.  Such patterns have been termed ‘eruptive cycles’ and refer to a sequence of eruptive types, each following the other, which might enable volcanologists to forecast types of eruptions.  Many volcanologists are eager to define these patterns for a volcano, making it easier to make decisions regarding the risk of volcanic hazard, thereby saving lives and property.  This raises the question of whether these patterns are accurate in modeling a volcano’s eruptive behavior, and if these patterns are not accurate, is it acceptable to use them in volcano monitoring?

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