Big Idea #10: Time Series PatternsAlthough it often appears as if volcanoes are spontaneous geologic features, there may actually exhibit recurring eruptive patterns. Such patterns have been termed ‘eruptive cycles’ and refer to a sequence of eruptive types, each following the other, which might enable volcanologists to forecast types of eruptions. Many volcanologists are eager to define these patterns for a volcano, making it easier to make decisions regarding the risk of volcanic hazard, thereby saving lives and property. This raises the question of whether these patterns are accurate in modeling a volcano’s eruptive behavior, and if these patterns are not accurate, is it acceptable to use them in volcano monitoring?
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