10.3


·        Activity records of volcanoes often cover few events, which can make pattern recognition difficult.  We often cannot tell if an apparent time series pattern is real.  Usually we can extend the activity record by doing field work and age dating samples.

o   The activity records of volcanoes sometimes appear to have patterns that recur.  For example, when new magma ascends it may have to cross a hydrologically active near surface layer, which leads to phreatic or phreato-magmatic activity.  Later, the volcano dries the conduit path to the surface and magmatic activity occurs. 

    The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program maintains an eruptive history database for the world's volcanoes here.




       Simplified Geologic map of Kilauea on the big island of Hawaii. Shown are dates are specific lava flows. These types of observations can give volcanologists a better idea of the timing and pattern of eruptions. Source: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/history/calderageology_map.html
        Example time series dataset for Vesuvius outside of Naples, Italy     Source:http://www.geo.mtu.edu/~raman/VTimeSer/TIME_SERIES_DATA.html